The demography of the State of Delhi comprises of majority people coming from the middle classes and the lower classes. The lower middle classes and the lower class are the people who are more reliant on faith than anything else, firstly, and secondly their monthly budgets matter to them more than anything else, thus is a real issue!
Since the propaganda of the BJP did not push for doing away with the sops being offered by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), instead it offered a free scooter for every girl in the state, the possible reasons for not winning the majority are very clear, and any layman would understand the most important reason which is the image of Kejriwal, who is a left of center populist, while the state of the national economy induces fear in the people that their thalinomics might come under threat, the message is not only very clear but is also a point of beginning for the BJP to start giving shape to its new era of leaders in the state and work towards a handsome majority in 2025.
Despite the so-called “defeat”, the electin commission data points out to a different picture altogether, as 38.8% voters rooted for the BJP in the present elections the 53.5% of the voters no doubt comprised of the en-bloc Muslim voters, who will never vote for the BJP, and also the supporters of Kejriwal, since yes, politics is personality cult!
A careful perusal of the above the result also shows that the BJP vote share increased from the tally in the 2015 assembly polls by a blunt 6%, and also, the number of seats increased making the BJP the single largest party in the opposition.
The results show that the state of Delhi, is one of the Congress Mukt states, and the grand old party needs to a major strategic and organisational re-think.
The Causes that led to a subtle performance by the BJP:
The causes which have been the key factor in the poll debacle are very few and can be enumerated in bullet points:-
(a) Manoj Tiwari ji, is a an outsider and less known man as compared to Arvind Kejriwal, who is the self-styled champion of the Lokpal movement, and has done some work in Delhi, which certainly is innovative.
(b) AAP is the first party of the people of Delhi, and the sops being offered seemed to be discontinued if the BJP was voted to power, which was a sheer lack of knowledge and is not the fault of the BJP. Yet, if the people contact program with the a manifesto would have come earlier, the 38.8% would have definitely been 44% or so! AAP started its campaigning way before anyone else could.
(c) Kejriwal stood by the soft-Hindutva stand, and to the extent that he went to the Hanuman temple on the day of elections, and also, during the entire campaign refrained from taking jibes on Modi ji, and did not dare to say a word on Shaheen Baghers and the Khan Market gang.
(d) Faulty organisational set up of the BJP.
The Lessons for the BJP:
No doubt that there are takers for the muscular nationalism agenda of the BJP and there exists a lot of roam to innovate and expand the performance base of the party in the 2025 elections in the Delhi State. The key improvements required are:-
(a) Aggressive performance by the urban local bodies of the Delhi state under the control of the BJP. No doubt the performance has been very good, yet there is always some space to do just a little more in social services sector, therefore it is still a must.
(b) Active and vociferous performance in the opposition by the BJP, and a cadre based movement which continues to promote the muscular nationalist agenda still.
(C) Nurturing and shaping Manoj Tiwari Ji as a popular leader in Delhi, for another five years through regular involvement with the people through seminars, rallies and much more, since he has to beat the Mulayam Singh of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, he has to put in the effort, and work to sway the intelligentsia, since the majority voters in the 53.5% bracket were the Hindus who are popularly known as “pseudo-intellectuals”.
(d) The mandate is not against Hindutva, and the branding of Kejriwal as a terrorist/ anarchist and pro-Muslim, played a good game changer, since it is evident, that he took the soft-Hindutva stand.
(e) The mandate of Kejriwal is due to his image, and due to his performance which helped improve the lives of the people, while the BJP is being perceived as the messiah of inflation, therefore, in the longer term, inflation has to be kept at manageable levels.
(f) No, secularist and divisive politics is not the mandate, the mandate is for Kejriwal, and purely dominated by economics and the peace of mind offered to the people, that BJP is there at the Centre, and Muslims won’t touch us, therefore, it is a victory. It resonates with the desire of the people ascribing to soft-Hindutva, there lies the crux.
(g) Since the election was contested in the name of Modi ji, it got the BJP 38.8% votes, and imagine if Modi ji was the candidate for the CM’s post, the mandate would have been miraculous! As a serious matter, the focus on state leadership should increase, and through rigorous activities being carried out continuously in the states where the BJP is in the opposition today, the scales can shift in the favour of the BJP all over. It is just a little work, that matters more than just what Modi ji does.
This author feels, the BJP must work more towards its goals and staying in power for more than 25 years, not only at the centre but respective states as well. Good Luck.